2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that called 7 majors
The PGA Tour's lone match play event tees off Wednesday with 64 of the world's top golfers divided into 16 groups of four. The 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play will see the golfers compete in a round-robin format for three days with the 16 group winners advancing to a single elimination format on Saturday and Sunday. Since the tournament shifted to Austin Country Club in 2016, three of the five winners have been seeded No. 32 or worse. The WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 2022 field will compete for the $12 million prize fund with the champion receiving $2.16 million.
Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm are listed as the 14-1 co-favorites at Caesars Sportsbook, while defending champion Billy Horschel comes in at 25-1. The latest 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds also have Scottie Scheffler at 18-1 and 2017 champion Dustin Johnson at 22-1. Before locking in your 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, it's up over $8,200 on its best bets since that point, nailing tournament after tournament.
At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure's best bets included Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. In addition, McClure's model was all over Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.
This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 2022 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play leaderboard.
The model's top 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play: Morikawa, the No. 2 ranked golfer in the world and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn't crack the top five. The two-time major championship winner hasn't been in his best form as of late, finishing T-68 at last week's Valspar Championship and missing the cut at The Players Championship. Morikawa also didn't have a great outing in his lone previous appearance at Austin Country Club, finishing in 56th place at this event last year.
His struggles can be pointed to his short game as his -.287 strokes gained around-the-green ranks 180th on tour. He ranked among the top 100 in each of the last two seasons and that weakness will be exposed at this course. With the 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play field being as deep as it is, there are far better bets than banking on Morikawa.
Another surprise: Daniel Berger, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He's been blistering courses this season, securing five top-20 finishes across his six tournaments. That includes three top-10s and Berger has a much better chance to win this week than his odds imply.
Berger has strong metrics across the board, ranking in the top 10 in strokes gained: approach-the-green (ninth), tee-to-green (ninth) and total (fifth). His stellar play has allowed him to post the ninth-lowest scoring average (69.942) on tour and that can easily be translated into match play format. Berger's best finish at Austin Country Club came in his last appearance at the course and he'll take that momentum with him into this year's event.
How to make 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play picks
The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 28-1 or higher who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these long shots could hit it big. You can only see them here.
So who will win the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play 2022? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed seven golf majors and is up over $8,200 since the restart.
2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play odds
Jon Rahm 14/1
Justin Thomas 14/1
Viktor Hovland 16/1
Scottie Scheffler 18/1
Collin Morikawa 20/1
Patrick Cantlay 22/1
Dustin Johnson 22/1
Billy Horschel 25/1
Brooks Koepka 28/1
Xander Schauffele 28/1
Daniel Berger 28/1
Bryson DeChambeau 28/1
Louis Oosthuizen 28/1
Tyrrell Hatton 30/1
Joaquin Niemann 33/1
Shane Lowry 33/1
Paul Casey 33/1
Jordan Spieth 33/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 40/1
Sungjae Im 40/1
Adam Scott 50/1
Russell Henley 50/1
Will Zalatoris 50/1
Abraham Ancer 50/1
Tommy Fleetwood 50/1
Brian Harman 50/1
Talor Gooch 50/1
Tony Finau 50/1
Kevin Kisner 50/1
Corey Conners 50/1
Max Homa 50/1
Sergio Garcia 50/1
Alex Noren 60/1
Webb Simpson 66/1
Bubba Watson 66/1
Maverick McNealy 66/1
Jason Kokrak 66/1
Patrick Reed 66/1
Marc Leishman 66/1
Robert Macintyre 66/1
Thomas Pieters 80/1
Si-Woo Kim 80/1
Tom Hoge 80/1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80/1
Sepp Straka 80/1
Keith Mitchell 80/1
Justin Rose 100/1
Keegan Bradley 100/1
Cameron Young 100/1
Ian Poulter 100/1
Harold Varner 100/1
Lee Westwood 100/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Erik Van Rooyen 125/1
Cameron Tringale 125/1
Seamus Power 125/1
Lucas Herbert 125/1
Matthew Wolff 125/1
Sebastian Munoz 125/1
Luke List 125/1
Mackenzie Hughes 150/1
Min Woo Lee 150/1
Richard Bland 200/1
Takumi Kanaya 250/1
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